After a year‑long probe begun in mid‑2023, the U.S. Commerce Department on April 21, 2025 imposed punitive anti‑dumping and countervailing duties—up to 3 521 percent—on solar cells and modules from Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand, to counter alleged below‑cost exports and unfair subsidies . While the duties aim to protect U.S. manufacturers, they threaten to raise project costs by ~30 percent, imperil planned capacity expansions, and upend major Southeast Asian export streams, prompting Cambodia to open negotiation channels and seek China’s backing .
Introduction and Chronology
In mid‑2023, a coalition of U.S. solar manufacturers led by Hanwha Qcells and First Solar filed a petition with the U.S. Commerce Department, alleging that Chinese firms operating in Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand were selling solar cells below production cost and benefiting from unfair host‑government subsidies, thereby harming U.S. producers .
On October first, two thousand twenty‑four, the Commerce Department issued preliminary anti‑dumping duties ranging from twenty‑one point three one percent to two hundred seventy‑one point two percent and countervailing duties of two point eight five percent to twenty‑three point zero six percent on solar cells from the four countries, pending a final ruling the following April .
Over the next six months, the investigation identified numerous cases of non‑cooperation and circumvention of existing China‑focused orders, leading to country‑wide provisional findings for Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand .
On April twenty‑first, two thousand twenty‑five, the Commerce Department announced its final determination, imposing combined anti‑dumping and countervailing duties as follows: Cambodia up to three thousand five hundred twenty‑one percent; Thailand up to three hundred seventy‑five point one nine percent; Vietnam up to three hundred ninety‑five point nine percent; and Malaysia up to forty‑one point five six percent .
The Department stressed that these measures aim to offset “unfair pricing and subsidization” that have eroded U.S. investments under the Inflation Reduction Act .
A binding vote by the U.S. International Trade Commission is scheduled for June two thousand twenty‑five to determine whether these imports caused material injury to domestic producers, a prerequisite for the duties to take full effect .
Shortly thereafter, the Cambodian government formally requested negotiations with Washington, leading to an agreement to open tariff talks in April of two thousand twenty‑five under a ninety‑day suspension of duties .
During Chinese President Xi Jinping’s April two thousand twenty‑five visit to Phnom Penh, Cambodia sought additional financial support from Beijing to offset U.S. protectionism, framing the tariffs as a direct threat to its export‑driven growth .
Impact Analysis on the United States and Southeast Asia
Impact on the United States
The final duties have been welcomed by U.S. cell and module producers, who argue they are necessary to protect domestic manufacturing investments and preserve the integrity of clean‑energy incentives .
By contrast, the Solar Energy Industries Association warns that the higher import costs will be passed on to project developers, raising module prices and threatening to delay or cancel utility‑scale projects under fixed‑price contracts .
Industry estimates suggest that large‑scale solar project costs in the United States could rise by around thirty percent, potentially reducing installations by up to twenty‑gigawatts below forecasts in two thousand twenty‑five .
Despite a one hundred ninety percent surge in domestic module output in two thousand twenty‑four, U.S. manufacturing still covers less than half of total demand, leaving projects reliant on imports from Southeast Asia .
Impact on Cambodia and Southeast Asia
Cambodian solar exporters, many of which did not cooperate with the Commerce probe, now face duties effectively barring their products from the U.S. market, endangering thousands of jobs and millions in export revenue .
Phnom Penh’s rapid diplomatic response included a letter from Prime Minister Hun Manet and the dispatch of a high‑level working group led by Deputy Prime Minister Sun Chanthol to negotiate tariff relief under a ninety‑day suspension framework.
The Cambodian government also deepened ties with China during President Xi’s visit, seeking concessional financing for infrastructure projects such as the Funan Techo Canal to compensate for lost U.S. export markets .
In Vietnam and Malaysia, exporters face duties up to three hundred ninety‑five point nine percent and forty‑one point five six percent, respectively, prompting some assemblers to explore rerouting shipments through Indonesia and Laos to evade U.S. levies .
Thai manufacturers confronting up to three hundred seventy‑five point one nine percent duties secured a brief postponement of negotiations after Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra agreed to review U.S. concerns in Washington .
Collectively, these measures threaten to slow the region’s rapid solar deployment, which has depended on competitively priced imports to expand both grid‑connected and off‑grid installations.
Policy Recommendations for Resilience and Cooperation
1.Cambodia and neighboring exporters must accelerate market diversification toward Europe, Latin America, and Africa, and invest in higher‑value activities such as panel assembly and balance‑of‑system component production to reduce vulnerability to unilateral U.S. tariffs .
2.Southeast Asian governments should establish transitional support measures for affected solar firms—including tax deferrals, export credits, and workforce retraining—to preserve industry know‑how and minimize unemployment risks .
3.Both the U.S. Commerce Department and the International Trade Commission should mandate a mid‑term review of these duties and include a sunset clause after five years, enabling rate adjustments as domestic manufacturing matures and market conditions evolve .
From: Sorng Rida, Political commentator, specializing in international politics and economics.
